Editorial Viewpoint
Going, going, gone...?
The 2001 census figures for Zoroastrians are as expected. We have declined by a further 6,781,bringing our all India figure to 69,601.
From a peak of 1,14,890 in the 1941 census we have dropped by 45,289 in 60 years. This means around 755 per year on an average. The drop from the 1991 to the 2001 census shows an average of 6,781 ÷10 = 678 a year.
The decline in the average from 755 to 678 is due to the smaller size of the community, resulting in fewer deaths and births. If the yearly average drops to 600 in the 2000 to 2010 decade (600 x 10 = 6,000) our population will be 69,601-6,000 = 63,601 in the 2011 census.
The count of Zoroastrians in Bombay in the 2001 census shows a figure of 46,557. The highest census figure for Bombay, 70,065, was in 1961. That means in the intervening 40 years, the city has lost 23,508 community members on an average of 588 a year. From 1991 to 2001 the drop is 53,794-46,557 = 7,237 (or about 723 per year). This is 456 more than the all-India drop of 6,781.
This implies that Parsis have either left Bombay for other parts of India or that the Parsis elsewhere have more children or that the census figures may be faulty.
The Government of India census bureau website (censusindia.net) has not given the geographic break-up of the figures pertaining to Parsi demography. But the overall figure for Maharashtra has declined from 60,501 in 1991 to 54,739 in 2001, a drop of 5,762. Hence the declining Bombay figures do not imply a shift to other parts of Maharashtra and Poona in particular. Poona’s proximity to Bombay (around 170 kilometers) and lower real estate costs have proved a magnet for retired persons.
The census website also includes ‘projected trends of the Parsi population in India.’ This projection which takes a 1941 figure of 1,14,533 as the base shows that the community numbers should have been 89,218 in 2001 and not 69,601. Part of this drop of 19,617 over 60 years in the actual and projected figures could be a result of out migration from India to elsewhere. But any projection would have allowed for a certain number migrating. It is probably because the fertility rate dropped beyond expectation.
In her carefully researched paper “Demographic trends of the community and future implications for Zoroastrian institutions” presented at the Fifth World Zoroastrian Congress in Bombay in January 1990, demographer Ava Khullar had projected an all-India figure of 46,298 for 2001 (Bombay 34,482 + rest of India 11,816). The Bombay figure was provided by the late Peshotan Nargolwala.
One reason why Khullar’s projection was awry was because the census figure of 71,630 for 1981 was skewed. Addressing the delegates at the Federation of Parsi Zoroastrian Anjumans of India in Bardoli in November 2003 and also the audience at the PARZOR meet in Bombay in October 2003, the census commissioner J. K. Banthia pointed out the 1981 figure should have been higher allowing for past trends but the community never questioned the veracity of the findings. The decade from 1971 to 1981 therefore showed a drop of 19,748 from 91,378 to 71,630. The actual figures for the 1981 census should have been closer to 80,000, reflecting a drop of 10,000 which would be consistent with the earlier census results.
As a consequence, for the 2001 census (which was conducted in 2000 but is referred to as the 2001 census) Lt Gen (Retd) Adi Sethna, a member of the National Minorities Commission and president of the Delhi Parsi Anjuman along with the PARZOR volunteers stressed upon all the anjuman leaders and community members to ensure the census enumerator visited all Parsi and Zoroastrian homes and that the community members extended maximum cooperation.
Thus the 2001 census figures should correctly reflect the current population. Given the situation, the question arises, what should the community’s priorities be? How should our institutions cope<
From a peak of 1,14,890 in the 1941 census we have dropped by 45,289 in 60 years. This means around 755 per year on an average. The drop from the 1991 to the 2001 census shows an average of 6,781 ÷10 = 678 a year.
The decline in the average from 755 to 678 is due to the smaller size of the community, resulting in fewer deaths and births. If the yearly average drops to 600 in the 2000 to 2010 decade (600 x 10 = 6,000) our population will be 69,601-6,000 = 63,601 in the 2011 census.
The count of Zoroastrians in Bombay in the 2001 census shows a figure of 46,557. The highest census figure for Bombay, 70,065, was in 1961. That means in the intervening 40 years, the city has lost 23,508 community members on an average of 588 a year. From 1991 to 2001 the drop is 53,794-46,557 = 7,237 (or about 723 per year). This is 456 more than the all-India drop of 6,781.
This implies that Parsis have either left Bombay for other parts of India or that the Parsis elsewhere have more children or that the census figures may be faulty.
The Government of India census bureau website (censusindia.net) has not given the geographic break-up of the figures pertaining to Parsi demography. But the overall figure for Maharashtra has declined from 60,501 in 1991 to 54,739 in 2001, a drop of 5,762. Hence the declining Bombay figures do not imply a shift to other parts of Maharashtra and Poona in particular. Poona’s proximity to Bombay (around 170 kilometers) and lower real estate costs have proved a magnet for retired persons.
The census website also includes ‘projected trends of the Parsi population in India.’ This projection which takes a 1941 figure of 1,14,533 as the base shows that the community numbers should have been 89,218 in 2001 and not 69,601. Part of this drop of 19,617 over 60 years in the actual and projected figures could be a result of out migration from India to elsewhere. But any projection would have allowed for a certain number migrating. It is probably because the fertility rate dropped beyond expectation.
In her carefully researched paper “Demographic trends of the community and future implications for Zoroastrian institutions” presented at the Fifth World Zoroastrian Congress in Bombay in January 1990, demographer Ava Khullar had projected an all-India figure of 46,298 for 2001 (Bombay 34,482 + rest of India 11,816). The Bombay figure was provided by the late Peshotan Nargolwala.
One reason why Khullar’s projection was awry was because the census figure of 71,630 for 1981 was skewed. Addressing the delegates at the Federation of Parsi Zoroastrian Anjumans of India in Bardoli in November 2003 and also the audience at the PARZOR meet in Bombay in October 2003, the census commissioner J. K. Banthia pointed out the 1981 figure should have been higher allowing for past trends but the community never questioned the veracity of the findings. The decade from 1971 to 1981 therefore showed a drop of 19,748 from 91,378 to 71,630. The actual figures for the 1981 census should have been closer to 80,000, reflecting a drop of 10,000 which would be consistent with the earlier census results.
As a consequence, for the 2001 census (which was conducted in 2000 but is referred to as the 2001 census) Lt Gen (Retd) Adi Sethna, a member of the National Minorities Commission and president of the Delhi Parsi Anjuman along with the PARZOR volunteers stressed upon all the anjuman leaders and community members to ensure the census enumerator visited all Parsi and Zoroastrian homes and that the community members extended maximum cooperation.
Thus the 2001 census figures should correctly reflect the current population. Given the situation, the question arises, what should the community’s priorities be? How should our institutions cope<
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