“We just do not make enough babies”

Following the 2001 census report for the community, Parsiana re­quested Delhi-based demographer Ava Khullar to analyze the census findings.

Khullar’s article will be published over three issues of Parsiana. The first installment pertains to the census findings, the second part gives a background to the demographic decline and the final section deals with interfaith marriages, community at­titudes and examples from other communities that have dealt constructively with the issue of demography.

For the first time in the history of India the massive decennial census operation undertaken in 2001 has analyzed the data on religious communities in India. This comes at an opportune time for the Parsi Zoroastrian community at this juncture when it is faced with the issue of sheer survival. The Parsis have not been clubbed under "other religions” as in earlier censuses which only reported the number of males and females and rural-urban distribution (which has no meaning for a near total urban commun­ity). Instead the 2001 census has given all the important demo­graphic details regarding different age groups, crude birth and death rate figures, the growth rate (in our case not growth but a decline), etc...

Let us briefly go over the important findings of the census, pointing out comparisons with the general population of India to show the starkness of the contrast.

The Parsis of India reached their highest ever census count of 1,14,890 in 1941. Since then, every decennial census has shown a 10 percent or more decrease with the latest 2001 census showing a count of 69,601 Parsis. In 60 years, the Parsis have declined by about 35 percent. With each successive decade recording further depletion in numbers one shudders to think of the extent of the downward slide in the next 60 years. However as we shall see later, this decline has been visible to researchers over a long period of time, starting from the time of our grandparents and great-grandparents.

While among the general population, the increase in growth rate is 21 percent, among the Parsis there is no growth but a decline of 8.88 percent. Parsis comprise a meager .0069 percent of the Indian population.

The most damaging finding is the strength of the population in the 0 to 6 age group segment which is 4.7 percent as against the general population average of 14 to 15 percent. The census find­ings show that there is only one child in this age group for every nine families. Even the Sikhs, who have the lowest rate of population growth among the other Indian communities, have 12.8 percent in the 0 to 6 age group. This amounts to three times more than the Parsis.

As against this, the aged segment of those over 60 years is a whopping 31 percent while for the general population it is seven percent. This is possibly one of the highest in the world even when compared to western countries. Seen in conjunction, the birth and death statistics tell a clear story of where the Parsi population is heading.

The crude birth rate in the 2001 census is six to seven per 1,000 as against the general population of 24.8 per 1,000. By contrast our death rate is 16 to 18 per 1,000 which implies that Parsis lose 10 persons per 1,000 (16-6) per year, which for a popu­lation of 69,000, amounts to 690 annually or a loss of 6,900 in a decade.

When we come to the male-female ratio we find that as with all our other demographic features, in this also we are moving in the opposite direction to the other Indian communities. The national average is 931 females for every 1,000 males, and in some other communities, for example the Sikhs, it is as low as 893, due mainly to the short shrift given to the female child which is considered as a burden on the family and therefore either elimi­nated at the foetus stage from the mother’s womb after a sex-selection test, or when born is not given the same nutrition or health care as the male child. Among the Parsis, the 2001 census showed the reverse situation of 1,050 females for 1,000 males. While this speaks of the equal position in which women are held, the real reason is that women outlive men and therefore we have the situation of a larger percentage of elderly women, widows or spinsters, often living alone in old age. This has a bearing on the care-giving functions required by them and the social responsi­bilities that family and the community have towards them.

While, as expected, the literacy in the community is 97.9 per­cent, it seems surprising that the working population is only 35 percent according to the 2001 census. This is even lower than the national average of 39.3 percent. The reason lies in the large percentage of the aged segment which comprises of retired persons. This has a strong bearing on the dependency of the aged on the younger generations.

The overall picture that emerges from the latest census further reiterates the declining trend that started from 1951 onwards.

When a community is not getting replenished with fresh blood by way of births, it starts to become slowly but surely an aging community. After all, each year, every Parsi is getting a year older and the group of 60 years and over gets larger and larger. This tilts the age composition of the community precariously on the side of the aged.

Sundburg, a Swedish statistician, has given measures which when applied to the age composition of a population, reveals if it is progressing, stationary or a declining population. According to him in a growing or progressive population, 40 percent would fall in the 0-14 age group, 50 percent in the 15 to 49 category and 10 percent in the over 50 group. Conversely in a stationary population 26.5 percent would be under 14, 50.5 percent in the 15-49 bracket and 23 percent aged over 50. The regressive or declining population would have 20 percent aged under 14, 50 percent in the 15-49 group and 30 percent over 50 years.

The last, the regressive trend applies to the Parsis. What happens in an aging community is that although Parsis live into their 70s and 80s and above, as each decade passes, the per­cent­age reaching the very high age brackets goes up and a sharp in­cre­ase in the death rate would become noticeable. Add to this a falling birth rate and we are on very precarious ground. The 1981 Census had showed that out of a total of 71,630 Parsis, 14,300 (20 percent) were 65 years or over and 9,000 (12 percent) were under 14 years. In 20 years, by 2001 the aged have risen to 31 percent. While normal populations appear diagrammatically as an upright triangle with a broad base of the younger tapering into the older age groups, the Parsi population demonstrates what is called the "inverted triangle” syndrome which starts with a very narrow base representing the young in the 0 to 6 age-group which is almost like the tip of the upright triangle, and then broadens out to the higher age-groups which now comprise 31 percent of the Parsis. This is a clear sign of a fast diminishing population.

The community’s perception

I have elaborated on these demographic findings especially to counter the skepticism among certain sections of Parsis regarding our population decline. As an example to illustrate, I was taken aback with the reaction of some members at the Bardoli meeting of the Federa­tion of Parsi Zoroastrian Anjumans of India (FPZAI) in November 2003, where J. K. Banthia, the Census Commissioner made a presentation regarding the 2001 census findings on the Parsis. He warned the community of the extremely unfortunate decline of the rich Zo­roastrian civilization and its people and urged for drastic interventions to ensure the survival of the community. They were heard discussing with others that they did not believe the findings of the census, implying all was well and there was no cause for alarm. There appear to be many like them. There is also the argument put forward that if we are down from the 1991 census figures by 6,781, that can be easily explained away by Parsis who have migrated out. But let us understand, it is not how many Parsis there are and where they are located around the globe, but the negligible replacement level by way of births that is the crucial issue. We just do not make enough babies. Banthia in his presentation at Bardoli tried to impress on the gathering that while natural calamities like the influenza epidemic in 1921 caused a fall in the number of Parsis the responsibility for the present crisis of declining numbers rests squarely on the shoul­ders of the community members themselves and hence only they can remedy the situation.

The first step in a crisis situation is to accept that the crisis exists and not be deluded by spurious arguments that lull the community into a false sense of complacency. This is highly dangerous and almost suicidal. Let history not record how a once glorious people and their civilization died away because of the indifference and apathy of its members. This is especially tragic for a group that is so well educated and capable of understanding the implications of the community’s present predicament.

I have tried to understand why in spite of factual data staring us in the face, a substantial group finds it so difficult to accept that we are facing a demographic crisis. I believe it is because of the concentration of Parsis in Bombay. Basically we are an insular community and tend to interact, socialize, and have our lives revolve within the community. Now in such a situa­tion where you are surrounded by Parsi neighbors and friends from morning to night (this is especially true in the Parsi colonies and baugs), it may appear inconceivable that anything ails the community. After all they are present all the time around you. This is also true of Parsis outside Bombay, perhaps to a lesser extent, as they also tend to stay in certain concentra­tions and have a similar insular life style. I was brought up in Nagpur, and until I finished college I had honestly not even entered a non-Parsi home, though I had a few school and college friends outside the community. This was most unconsciously done as we Parsis were so content and busy within the community, socializing among ourselves, organizing programs for festive celebrations, attending navjotes and lagans, etc.

Another aspect which is proving dangerous is that there is no societal censure either from the family or friends or the community at large against the decision of members to remain single, nor effective pressure to ensure that every Parsi accepts that marriage is a necessary part of life. This is very peculiar to the Parsi community in India, although this phenomenon is observed in other developed western countries. This would be unthinkable among our sister communities in India where it is presupposed that marriage and children are necessary and inevitable at a reasonable age in life. In the Parsi case it would appear that the whole community is acquiescing in the trend of allowing a large section of the youth to forgo marriage without realizing the serious consequences non-marriage entails for the community.

To be continued

A trustee of the Delhi Parsi Anjuman, Ava Khullar is a social scientist, who was for 17 years associated with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), a research organization in Delhi. Since 1978 she has been studying the demographic trends in the community and the problems facing the Zoroastrain population. Recently she has started an embroidery business in the name of Sonava.